Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.018898 0.021452 0.024234 0.027488 0.031192 0.035281 0.040140
2025-03-30 0.014245 0.017587 0.021546 0.026591 0.032858 0.040401 0.050191
2025-04-06 0.011868 0.015507 0.020073 0.026236 0.034362 0.044739 0.059051
2025-04-13 0.009956 0.013620 0.018437 0.025253 0.034686 0.047332 0.065665
2025-04-20 0.009113 0.012978 0.018271 0.026077 0.037351 0.053127 0.077030
2025-04-27 0.008384 0.012375 0.018043 0.026718 0.039737 0.058670 0.088518
2025-05-04 0.007822 0.011930 0.017962 0.027511 0.042355 0.064720 0.101292
2025-05-11 0.007089 0.011139 0.017269 0.027279 0.043348 0.068354 0.110649
2025-05-18 0.006521 0.010537 0.016789 0.027300 0.044692 0.072596 0.121312
2025-05-25 0.005939 0.009849 0.016099 0.026897 0.045276 0.075619 0.130197
2025-06-01 0.005587 0.009499 0.015915 0.027293 0.047193 0.080968 0.143498
2025-06-08 0.005165 0.008990 0.015413 0.027090 0.048045 0.084548 0.153996
2025-06-15 0.004953 0.008832 0.015509 0.027959 0.050901 0.091960 0.172311
2025-06-22 0.004485 0.008179 0.014685 0.027107 0.050576 0.093648 0.180207
2025-06-29 0.004141 0.007718 0.014158 0.026742 0.051093 0.096895 0.191339
2025-07-06 0.003745 0.007124 0.013336 0.025740 0.050294 0.097559 0.197426
2025-07-13 0.003628 0.007047 0.013469 0.026579 0.053144 0.105507 0.218954
2025-07-20 0.003496 0.006928 0.013509 0.027234 0.055676 0.113040 0.240373
2025-07-27 0.003390 0.006852 0.013623 0.028043 0.058588 0.121594 0.264813
2025-08-03 0.003178 0.006542 0.013246 0.027806 0.059289 0.125612 0.279780
2025-08-10 0.003010 0.006308 0.013005 0.027828 0.060537 0.130888 0.298062
2025-08-17 0.002814 0.005998 0.012579 0.027416 0.060799 0.134041 0.311805
2025-08-24 0.002707 0.005872 0.012529 0.027819 0.062902 0.141440 0.336183